|Coach Hill's 2010 State Predictions
|I like to do this just for fun. Coaches, athletes, parents, & fans, take it for what you will. It is one persons thoughts and
comments on the State XC outcomes and maybe you'll view them somewhat biased. I am obsessive compulsive about the
sport of Cross-Country and can tell you the name and faces of the top 30 kids in each division so I think it is a pretty
accurate evaluation of State XC. Here is last year results of my picks, I picked 5 of the 8 team champs, but only 2 of the 8
individual champs. So as you can see, it's pretty hard to predict what will happen and there are always lots of upsets.
Well, have fun with it, use it to motivate yourself or your athletes or throw it in the trash.
|Teams: Soda comes in again as the heavy favorites to win their 5th straight State Title, but unlike last year when the team
was led by a bunch of Seniors, this team is almost all Freshman. For about a year I have been bragging about my 4 new
freshman thinking they would be unbeatable this year. But Soda got 9 Freshman this year that have been even better. Soda
has beat Firth each time they have raced, but the time gap has decreased each time, so it is going to be interesting again.
These two teams have battled for the Blue trophy for the last 8 years with the other team getting second or third. There is
probably no better rivalry in XC. Firth this year has the better upfront two runners in K. Hill and C. Jolley, but then the
RED SWARM of freshman come in making it hard for anyone to compete with them at any level. It will all come down to
who has the best day, and handles the pressure of State the best. We will see Saturday!! I know I've only talked about
two team, there are a couple others that could surprise and factor into the championship. Gooding, and McCall-Donnelly
both moved down from 3A and bring tough teams to Soda, along with CDA Charter which has emerged as of late. One
thing for sure, is it will be a great race.
My Trophy Picks: (Got to Go with my girls) 1st Firth, 2nd Soda, 3rd Gooding., 4th Cd'A Charter
|Individuals: Where do I start there is so much talent and credentials among this group. Let's look at a couple of the
favorites. Leading the way I think is Butte's Carly Hansen, she won Bob Firman and had not lost in last two months to a
2A/1A girl until last week at District. The girl that beat her, Tylee Newman West Jefferson. Up until last week Tylee had
been chasing Carly, finishing second to her at Firman, Butte, and Firth Invites. But at District she had a little more than
Carly and slightly outdistanced her. Another huge threat is a couple State Track Champs in Jocelyn Allen North Fremont
(3200 m State Champ 2010) who is coming back strong after a serious summer ankle injury. Each week she has
improved and could really have a big final race. The other track sensation is Mary Frances Small from Clark County. She
is the 2-time 1A State 3200 m and 1600m state champ and is starting to learn XC. I think there are three others that have
been tearing it up in there own neck of the woods. Ellie Dalton and Sasha Kent out of the 4th District are running really
well and are serious threats. Then up north Jenna MacPherson (Deary) has been winning everything north of Boise and
could be the surprise of the year. One of these above should win, but there are alway some surprises from those with a
little less pressure like all the good freshman.
My Picks: 1. Carly Hansen (Butte), 2. Jocelyn Allen (NF), 3. Tylee Newman (WJ)
|Teams: The rankings have Challis #1, since the have not been beat by a small school all year. There front 5 have been
running strong all year. Making them even tougher is Ty Tritthart returning to form after a bad motorcycle accident almost
finished his career. Their big problem, they are only 5 deep, if one has an off day they will struggle to win. The team with
the best shot to knock them off is West Side. If we scored just 4 nobody would touch West Side, but their #5 has been a
little off the pace. West Side's District performance was definitely incredible and may put them as the new favorite. I still
think their 5th man will have to step up a little more for them to beat Challis. I don't see any other team that can really
challenge these two, but a couple that might surprise are Soda, Greenleaf Friends, and Firth.
The big question; Can Challis be the 1st 1A school to win a Cross Country State Title?
My Trophy Picks: 1st Challis, 2nd West Side, 3rd Soda, 4th Firth, .
|Individuals: Senior Caden Portela (Firth) won the State Title in 2008, and finished as runner-up last year. An injury that
slowed Portela for over a year has subsided, and he is returning to 2008 form. Mike McHan (Gooding) has finished as
runner-up himself the past two years at the 3A level, now at 2A he has high hopes to win it all and has the talent to do it.
Like I wrote earlier Ty Tritthart (Challis) has been really coming on and is scary. Then there are a couple West Side boys
in Josh Hatch and Jordan Butler, these two for sure have the ability to pull off the upset. The only other runner I think that
could pull off the upset is Dylan Crevelt (Cascade). He ran the fastest of any 1A/2A runner earlier this year at the Cardinal
Classic. He may have the least amount of pressure and in turn pull off the upset, but again it will be interesting.
My Picks: 1. Caden Portela (Firth), 2. Ty Tritthart (Challis), 3. Dylan Crevelt (Cascade), 4. Josh Hatch (West Side)
|Teams: I said last year that the Bear Lake streak of 6 straight state titles would end. It did! Now it looks like a new team
is starting their own streak. Timberlake ended the streak with their first State Title and again is ranked #1 in 2010. I
honestly believe that they would have to all come down with a major illness for someone to beat them this year. With the
next best teams (Gooding, McCall) moving down to 2A this year. It just does not look like another team can even come
close. The next best teams in the state that might pick up the title if Timberlake bonks are Bear Lake and Sugar-Salem.
Sugar lost a great runner when she moved to China with her father earlier this year or we might have a viable contender.
Bear Lake has a top individual contender in Amelia Crane, but not enough behind her to pose a serious threat. It seems
picking this one is a no brainer, but I've been proven wrong before.
My Trophy Picks: 1st Timberlake, 2nd Sugar, 3rd Bear Lake, 4th Teton.
|Individuals: A month ago after Tiger-Grizz and Bob Firman I would have said Alice Keller (Salmon) will run away with
the State Title. Alice is still the heavy favorite to win, but Amelia Crane (Bear Lake) has really been improving and could
really make it a race. She has been racing some tough competition week in and week out, where Alice has just been
dominating, often running by herself. We also can not forget defending champ Marquita Palmer (Weiser). She ran well at
Firman, beating a another strong contender from Timberlake in Ashley George, but has continued to improve. Last year I
picked Alice to win, but Marquita pulled off the win. So maybe I will be surprised again by one of these or some dark
horse. Personally I think Alice has improved likewise during this last month so no one will be close.
My Pick: 1. Alice Keller (Salmon), 2. Amelia Crane (Bear Lake), 3. Marquita Palmer (Weiser).
|Teams: Last year Teton and Sugar Salem battled all year each winning about every other week. This year I thought it
might have been similar, but Sugar lost a number of seniors and a key runner who ended up at Hillcrest. So Teton has
basically had their way in the 3A Division this year and about everywhere else. They have a solid senior core with the
Wilson twins and then a couple great underclassmen. There depth is so good, that there JV would battle for a state trophy.
Here again there is not a serious contender to Teton in this Division, in fact I could probably just repeat what I said about
the Timberlake girls. If every Teton runner is sick, then maybe Salmon, Kimberly, Buhl or Bonners Ferry might get the
upset win. But realistically these teams top 5 average is generally more than a minute slower than Teton, so barring
catastrophe its Teton for the win.
My Trophy Picks: 1. Teton, 2. Salmon, 3. Kimberly, 4. Bonners Ferry.
|Individuals: With top returner Mike McHan (Gooding) moving down a Division this year, it is an open field. The top guys
in this division all seem to be from District 6. Caleb Moosman (Teton) is now the top returner from last year, and although
just a sophomore is one of the favorites. His teammate and Senior Tavner Wilson (Teton) is the #1 ranked runner after
having won the District 6 title last week. Brandon Garner (Sugar) is another D6 runner that has been running very good
and has great finishing speed. There are a couple others; Bonners Ferry's Micah Krmpotich and Kimberly's Brian Crane
both could have an impact in the championship race. But based on the results from Firman and other head-to-head
competitions, I think is will come down to who has the best day between Wilson, Moosman, and Garner.
My Pick: 1. Brandon Garner (Sugar), 2. Tavner Wilson (Teton), 3. Caleb Moosman (Teton).
|Teams: This again appears to be an easy pick. Bishop Kelly returns almost their entire squad that won State in 2009 and
then surprised the nation finishing second at the Northwest Regional NXN and qualifying for NXN Nationals. They seem to
be returning to form sweeping the top 4 spots at Districts. They do have a small weakness as their 5th runner was back
more than a minute. If another team can squeeze 5 runners in that gap they might be able to pull of the upset. There are a
few teams that have the potential to do this: Hillcrest, Twin Falls, Jerome, Mountain Home, and Skyview. Jerome has an
incredible top 3 in Mackenzie Chojnacky, Mikesell Clegg, and Jasmine Nesbitt, but their 1-5 gap is even bigger than BK.
The other teams all have pretty good packs but I don't think they are strong enough to overcome the up front strength of
BK. The course might provide a little help if the front group goes out too fast up Heartbreak Hill and through the first mile,
and end up coming back to the pack and reducing the overall gap between the field. With all this said, bottom line BK wins.
My Trophy Picks: 1st Bishop Kelly 2. Hillcrest, 3. Twin Falls, 4. Jerome.
|Individuals: Two years in a row I picked against Emily Nist from Bishop Kelly. That shows you how smart I am. She
proved me wrong both years; first destroying Megan Barlett (Sandpoint) as a freshman, them Hannah McInturff (Century)
last year. This year I won't be so dumb. I'm picking Emily to win her 3rd State Title bringing her one step closer to being
Idaho's only 4-Time State XC Champion. I think there is one girl that could pose a serious threat to her title run. Mackenzie
Chojnacky (Jerome) lost to Emily by just 9 seconds earlier at the Soda Cardinal Classic. They raced again at Firman with
Nist beating Chojnacky by 22 seconds. I do think this will be closer than most think. This is one race you don't want to miss.
My Pick: 1. Emily Nist (BK), 2.Mackenzie Chojnacky (Jerome) 3. Mikesell Clegg (Jerome).
|Teams: Twin Falls move down last year proved to be a nail in every 4A teams side. They did what everyone expected
last year and won their 3rd State Title in a row (2 at 5A and 1 at 4A). They again are ranked #1 right now, but this Division
outside of the 5A boys may be the race most up in the air. Guessing who will win this is truly a guess. Wood River if they
have James Parish back from his injury, may be the team to beat. With Parish out of their line-up they have still been pretty
impressive, if he is just close to where he was when he got injured, watch out 4A, they are legit. Bishop Kelly I think has
also been flying under the radar this year. They haven't really looked all that strong until last week at District, but now I'm
putting them right in the mix to win it all. Hillcrest, Rigby, and Sandpoint also have the potential to pull off the upset here. I
really feel any of these 6 could win the State Title, but I'm here to pick a winner, so here I go.
My Pick: 1. Bishop Kelly, 2. Twin Falls, 3. Wood River, 4. Hillcrest, 5. Rigby.
|Individuals: Last year I picked Chase Caulkins (Wood River), and a couple months ago I thought Wood River was going
to have another Champ in James Parish, but a stress fracture has slowed him down (I hope to see him race at state). Now
the favorite has to be 800 m star Erik Harris (Twin Falls) as he has shown the best results lately. However 3200 m State
Champ Tyler Croft looks great and seems to peak at the right time. Adam Story (Moscow) is the real unknown in this
Division. He has been dominating up north and laying down some incredible times, and I feel he is for real and could
surprise the state. A couple others that I think could really mix it up with the leaders from the Treasure Vally are: Michael
Gordon (Kuna), Cody Fivecoats (Middleton) both are great runners and will play are large part of the lead pace. This is
going to be a very good pack up front, but I think Croft breaks away and runs to the win.
My Picks: 1. Tyler Croft (Hillcrest), 2. Erik Harris (Twin Falls), 3. Adam Story (Moscow).
|Teams: The 5A ranks in the State of Idaho is now very tough to dominate. There are just to many good runners,
teams, and coaches. It is always a dogfight to win at State. However, Mountain View seems to put a lock on 5A
this year beating everyone each week. They just have too much depth for the rest of the 5A teams. Now I'm not
saying they can't be beat, but someone will really have to step up and race incredible to knock them off. This is
what I said in 2008 and repeated last year, and this year may even be more applicable. They did win in 2008, but last year
Boise surprised with an incredible pack. This year Mountain View is ranked #22 Nationally and they have dominated the
State all year scoring just 20 at Districts. I think like I said earlier that they would have to suffer a major team illness to
slow them down. There are only a couple of teams that I think can even touch this group. Boise seems to pull off miracles
this time of year and might to it again. Eagle also has the girls to scare MV, and they have youth that could really surprise.
Realistically, Mountain View should win this easy, but we will see come Saturday. I hope the girls can run in the cold.
My Trophy Picks: 1st Mt. View, 2nd Boise, 3rd Eagle, 4th Rocky Mountain.
|Individuals: Once again Idaho has a great deal of talent in the 5A field. Two time defending champ Kinsey Gomez
(Cd'A) is nationally ranked and leads this field. Kate Jamboretz (Boise) has once again proven she can run with about
anyone and on a given day win the Title. New freshman Rachael Tatko (Eagle) started the season with an explosion, but
has struggled a little as of late, but watch out. The three have not raced head to head this year, in fact Kinsey hasn't really
raced any Idaho girls south of Moscow, so it is hard to say how they all compare right now. I do still think Kinsey is the
queen of the course until somebody knocks her off, so I'm picking Gomez for the win. However, look for an incredible
race, with a couple others that may challenge for awhile, but I think it will ultimately come down to these 3.
My Pick: 1. Kinsey Gomez (CDA), 2. Kate Jamboretz (Boise), 3. Rachael Tatko (Eagle).
|Teams: It seems I could just say the same thing every year in each of these Classification. Last year I said, "You could
draw a name out of a hat from about 6 teams and it would probably be right." This was correct as Boise ran out of
their heads and stole the State Championship from teams that had beat them all year. This year if you have watched the
rankings, I have shuffled teams around a great deal. Each week a new team seemed to have the upper edge, but lack of
head to head battles among the top teams made it tough to rank this group. Who are these teams? Coeur d' Alene, Eagle,
Boise, Mountain View, Highland and Timberline. I think on any given day any one of these teams could pull off the win.
Highland has the star up front and a good pack. CDA likewise has a great up front guy and a solid pack probably a little
better than Highland. Eagle has I think the best 1-7 pack and because of this are probably the favorites to win, but so
could Mountain View which likewise has a great pack attack. I'm sure I'll pick this one incorrect again as I have the pass 3
years. Maybe my draw out of the hat will be correct this year. We will see!! Best team battle of the day!!
My Trophy Pick: 1. Coeur d'Alene, 2nd Eagle, 3rd Boise, 4th Mt. View,
|Individuals: Of the big three from last year: Cody Helbling (Lake City) NXN qualifier, Footlocker finalist, Erik Fitzpatrick
(Boise) 3 Time 5A XC State Champ, and Dallin Farnsworth (Highland) 3200m State Champ, only Dallin is left. So Dallin
is 2010's favorite for the win. He has not been beat this year in or out of the State. He has beat some of the nation best,
and barring a collapse should continue his dominance. But I know there are a lot of young runners out there dreaming of
winning the covenanted title, and there are a few who could challenge Dallin. David Norris (CDA) might have the best
shot, but senior Cody Larson (Capital) is really tearing it up right now, and up and coming sophomore Justin Ross (Rocky
Mountain) could feel less pressure and really surprise. These are the only runners I see on the same radar screen of Dallin.
Fastest race of the day for sure!!
My Pick: 1. Dallin Farnsworth (Highland), 2. Cody Larson (Capital), 3. Justin Ross (Rocky Mountain).
|I hope you don't take any of this to seriously, since I've thrown out so much
nonsense, and am bias. Good Luck to all Teams!!!!